Nine Things to Watch For at the Republican National Convention

1. How Will Hosting the Convention Affect the Presidential Election in Minnesota?

In the past 20 presidential elections, Minnesotans have voted for the Republican nominee only four times. But after being “flown over” by presidential candidates in both parties for years, Minnesota was surprised by George W. Bush’s campaign visit in the final week of the 2000 election, which almost won him the state. Will the convention help break the winless streak for Republicans that goes back to 1972?

Optimistic Republicans believe hosting the convention in Minnesota will provide just enough spark for Sen. John McCain to win the state. After a full summer of anticipation and preparation culminating in one week where the world spotlight shines on our state, Minnesotans will be left with a warm, fuzzy feeling toward our GOP guests and their leader. We have a tendency in Minnesota to claim folks as our own who spend small parts of their lives here. This Minnesota pride could carry over to Sen. John McCain after he secures the nomination in our back yard.

2. Who Will Represent Minnesota at the Convention?

You need two things to become a delegate to a national convention: votes and money. But with the convention right here in St. Paul, being a Minnesota delegate this year won’t cost much, right? Wrong. It turns out that heavy security surrounding the convention will force all delegations, including the host state, to be assigned to a hotel, and delegates must stay with their group the whole week. Minnesota delegates might save on airfare, but they’re still going to end up with a hotel bill of more than $1,000 for the week. Each of the eight congressional districts in Minnesota will choose three delegates.

3. What Effect Will the Convention Have on Sen. Norm Coleman’s Campaign?

The 2000 Republican National Convention was hosted in Philadelphia, by first-term U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, who was facing re-election as the No. 1 Republican target in the country. Today, Sen. Norm Coleman finds himself in the exact same situation. Al Franken has to convince voters to fire Coleman from the Senate, and he’ll be right in the middle of making that case when a “timeout” will be called in order to hold the convention. Campaign ads will be replaced with prime-time images of Coleman welcoming everyone to St. Paul and the Xcel Energy Center (known as the House That Norm Built). When the convention ends, Minnesota voters will have a soft spot in their hearts for Republicans (including Coleman) and it may be too late for Franken to close the sale. If history is any guide, Coleman should remember his former colleague Santorum—he won re-election in Pennsylvania in 2000 with 52 percent of the vote.

4. What Effect Will the Convention Have on Al Franken’s Campaign?

When the Republicans held their convention in New York City in 2004, a liberal talk radio host by the name of Al Franken set up shop and broadcast his show live just off the convention floor on Radio Row. The convention could provide a unique opportunity for Franken to become the voice of the loyal opposition here in St. Paul. Every media outlet in the world will be here covering the convention, and all of them will want an entertaining guest to provide analysis from the Democrat point of view. Franken could use his star power to keep a high profile during the convention, and if he’s smart, he’ll work his local Senate campaign message into every sound bite. If the Democrat’s theme of the 2008 campaign is to tie McCain to the Bush years, it shouldn’t be hard for Franken to do the same with Sen. Coleman.

5. What Kind of Fundraising Will Take Place During the Convention?

While we can expect some political fundraisers to occur during the convention, most of it will be low-key. The lobbyists and corporate leaders coming to St. Paul will most likely have already given their maximum contribution to the McCain campaign, and he will not be in town long enough to host a fundraiser. With all of the national heavy-hitters in one place (and in a festive mood) it would be foolish for Coleman not to take advantage. And since most of these big donors are equal-opportunity givers, Franken should also have some opportunities to raise money while the convention is in town. Franken could also schedule a small donor event and invite all of the protesters in town, although he may not want his campaign associated with some of the anarchist groups coming to St. Paul. Fundraising efforts will not be limited solely to politics. Republicans are planning a fundraiser for Hurricane Katrina victims at First Avenue in Minneapolis during this year’s convention.

6. What History Will Be Made in St. Paul That People Will Be Talking About for Years?

At the 1948 Democratic National Convention, the young mayor of Minneapolis, Hubert Humphrey, gave a stirring and controversial speech urging his fellow delegates to ratify a strong civil rights plank in the party platform. “The time has arrived in America for the Democratic Party to get out of the shadow of states’ rights and to walk forthrightly into the bright sunshine of human rights,” implored Humphrey. The speech introduced Humphrey to the nation and paved the way for his future as vice president and the nominee for president in 1968. Twelve years later at the 1960 Republican National Convention, another Minnesotan gave a speech to remember. Walter Judd, congressman from Minnesota’s 5th District, gave the keynote speech and delivered a stinging criticism of recent Democrat failures in foreign policy. (See sidebar.) Judd asked his audience a series of 10 rhetorical questions and by the time he was finished, the crowd was on their feet, shouting “No!” to answer each question and cheering him on. The speech was so well received that a movement began from the floor to draft Judd as the vice presidential nominee. Richard Nixon in fact had narrowed his choice to Judd and Henry Cabot Lodge, choosing Lodge for his electoral strength in the Northeast. During his acceptance speech, Nixon called Judd’s remarks “one of the most outstanding keynote addresses in either party in history.”

7. Who Will Address the Convention This Year?

Some speculation:

The runners-up—Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter and Sam Brownback all will likely be invited to make speeches. Look for Giuliani and Huckabee to get important spots in prime time and deliver speeches to remember. It will be interesting to see if they let Ron Paul in front of the microphone. He ran a very strong grass-roots campaign that connected with young Republicans and Libertarians across the country but rankled the GOP leadership with some of his positions and tactics.

The rising stars—Gov. Pawlenty and Sen. Coleman fall into this category. As the hosts, they will certainly be asked to make important speeches. Other rising stars include Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

FOM—Friends of McCain—Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina has been a solid friend and legislative ally to McCain and is a good bet to speak. Another FOM, Sen. Joe Lieberman, will play the role of the token Democrat to speak at the Republican convention, following in the footsteps of Zell Miller four years ago.

Some wildcards—SEC chair and former California congressman Chris Cox would make a great story speaking in his hometown of St. Paul. Would the McCain folks welcome former Florida governor Jeb Bush to the microphone? He would be very well received by the conservatives but may be one Bush too many for this convention and this campaign.

8. How Will President Bush Be Received?

One of the highlights of the convention will be the appearance of President Bush. After eight years as the leader of the party, this will be one of the last important speeches of his presidency. Both President Reagan and President Clinton used their convention speeches to review the accomplishments of their presidencies and give a boost to those appointed to carry on their legacies. Both presidents began their speeches recounting what bad shape the country was in when they took over from the other party (Reagan mentioned the “misery index” and Clinton used the popular “12 years of Republican rule” mantra). Each went on to highlight his accomplishments at home and around the world. Bush will undoubtedly follow the same formula with a spirited defense of the war on terror and a recitation of his domestic accomplishments regarding taxes, education and the economy. Reagan and Clinton were treated like rock stars at their final conventions, and Bush can expect the same warm welcome from the Republican faithful.

9. A Tale of Two Mayors: What Impact Will the Convention Have on the Political Careers of Chris Coleman and R.T. Rybak?

One interesting subplot of the convention will be the performance of our two Democratic big-city mayors, both positioning themselves for future statewide political careers. St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman has the more difficult challenge of hosting most of the protesters. It’s likely heads will be busted and arrests made—it’s inevitable once the anarchists come to town.

Instead of spending time on protests, Mayor Rybak will show off the City of Lakes to a worldwide audience and help everyone find a parking place as his hotels and restaurants fill to capacity each night of the convention.

Bill Walsh is a self-described recovering political hack currently working as the director of communications for the Minnesota Department of Commerce. Previously he worked as the director of communications for the Minnesota Department of Education and on the communications staff of Gov. Tim Pawlenty. He also served as executive director of the Minnesota Republican Party and was a political aide to former Speaker of the House Steve Sviggum.